Malang — Tensions between the United States and Iran have once again shaken the global stage. Although both countries have entered a ceasefire phase, the situation does not fully guarantee an end to the conflict. Indeed, this condition shows that the struggle for global geopolitical influence continues and has the potential to spark new crises.
Amidst these dynamics, Dr. Akhirul Aminulloh, a lecturer in the S1 Communication Science Study Program at Universitas Negeri Malang (UM) with a focus on political communication, believes that the conflict is not merely about military power. According to him, the ongoing struggle also concerns political dominance, strategic interests, and the scramble for influence among major powers in the global order.
“Conflicts like this are not just about war in the physical sense, but also about how a country maintains its influence and interests,” he stated during an interview with the UM Public Relations Team on Thursday (23/4).
From a geopolitical perspective, the ceasefire phase can be interpreted from two sides. On one hand, it opens opportunities for de-escalation and a path towards peace. However, on the other hand, a ceasefire can also be a space for strategic consolidation before each party determines its next political and security steps.
Akhirul explained that victory in international conflicts is not always determined by military superiority. Government stability, public support, and the ability to maintain political legitimacy are also crucial factors in determining a country’s position in the world’s eyes.
In an increasingly interconnected era of globalization, conflicts in one region can trigger a domino effect on other countries, including Indonesia. One of the most vulnerable sectors affected is the global economy, especially energy distribution and international trade routes.
“When there is a disruption to energy distribution or international trade routes, the impact is not only felt by the conflicting countries but also by other countries with economic ties,” he explained.
Such disruptions have the potential to trigger rising energy prices, disruptions to global supply chains, and a slowdown in global economic growth. This situation also serves as a reminder that geopolitical stability is directly linked to the welfare of the international community.
In addition to impacting the economy, prolonged conflicts are also considered capable of altering the global political balance. Akhirul highlighted the increasingly dynamic map of world powers, especially with the involvement of major countries like Russia and China, which have their own strategic interests.
“Shifts in the focus and priorities of major countries can create new dynamics in the global order,” he said.
Therefore, diplomacy is considered the most rational instrument to curb conflict escalation. According to Akhirul, the involvement of various countries in promoting mediation and dialogue can open opportunities for more constructive resolutions compared to confrontational approaches.
“The more parties that encourage dialogue, the greater the chance of achieving a peaceful resolution,” he stated.
As the Head of the Pancasila Laboratory Committee (Lapasila) at UM, Akhirul also emphasized the importance of Indonesia’s consistent free and active foreign policy. Amidst the escalating global geopolitical dynamics, Indonesia needs to maintain its strategic position as a country that promotes international peace without being trapped in the interests of certain blocs.
“Indonesia has had a tradition from the outset of promoting peace and maintaining a position that is not entangled in the interests of specific blocs,” he explained.
According to him, Indonesia’s biggest challenge moving forward is not only to uphold this principle but also to strengthen its diplomatic capacity to play a more active role in responding to various global issues.
The conflict between the United States and Iran proves that global stability is increasingly fragile. In an interconnected global situation, geopolitical tensions no longer have only local impacts but also widely affect the economy, security, and international relations.
Reporter: Inayah Amalia Taufani — Internship UM Public Relations
Editor: Muhammad Salmanudin Hafizh Shobirin – UM Public Relations